PCI-SIG this week released version 0.5 of the PCI-Express 7.0 specification to its members. This is the second draft of the spec and the final call for PCI-SIG members to submit their new features to the standard. The latest update on the development of the specification comes a couple months shy of a year after the PCI-SIG published the initial Draft 0.3 specificaiton, with the PCI-SIG using the latest update to reiterate that development of the new standard remains on-track for a final release in 2025.
PCIe 7.0 is is the next generation interconnect technology for computers that is set to increase data transfer speeds to 128 GT/s per pin, doubling the 64 GT/s of PCIe 6.0 and quadrupling the 32 GT/s of PCIe 5.0. This would allow a 16-lane (x16) connection to support 256 GB/sec of bandwidth in each direction simultaneously, excluding encoding overhead. Such speeds will be handy for future datacenters as well as artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications that will need even faster data transfer rates, including network data transfer rates.
To achieve its impressive data transfer rates, PCIe 7.0 doubles the bus frequency at the physical layer compared to PCIe 5.0 and 6.0. Otherwise, the standard retains pulse amplitude modulation with four level signaling (PAM4), 1b/1b FLIT mode encoding, and the forward error correction (FEC) technologies that are already used for PCIe 6.0. Otherwise, PCI-SIG says that the PCIe 7.0 speicification also focuses on enhanced channel parameters and reach as well as improved power efficiency.
Overall, the engineers behind the standard have their work cut out for them, given that PCIe 7.0 requires doubling the bus frequency at the physical layer, a major development that PCIe 6.0 sidestepped with PAM4 signaling. Nothing comes for free in regards to improving data signaling, and with PCIe 7.0, the PCI-SIG is arguably back to hard-mode development by needing to improve the physical layer once more – this time to enable it to run at around 30GHz. Though how much of this heavy lifting will be accomplished through smart signaling (and retimers) and how much will be accomplished through sheer materials improvements, such as thicker printed circuit boards (PCBs) and low-loss materials, remains to be seen.
The next major step for PCIe 7.0 is finalization of the version 0.7 of specification, which is considered the Complete Draft, where all aspects must be fully defined, and electrical specifications must be validated through test chips. After this iteration of the specification is released, no new features can be added. PCIe 6.0 eventually went through 4 major drafts – 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9 – before finally being finalized, so PCIe 7.0 is likely on the same track.
Once finalized in 2025, it should take a few years for the first PCIe 7.0 hardware to hit the shelves. Although development work on controller IP and initial hardware is already underway, that process extends well beyond the release of the final PCIe specification.
CPUsTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. this week released its financial results for Q1 2024. Due to a rebound in demand for semiconductors, the company garned $18.87 billion in revenue for the quarter, which is up 12.9% year-over-year, but a decline of 3.8% quarter-over-quarter. The company says that in increase in demand for HPC processors (which includes processors for AI, PCs, and servers) drove its revenue rebound in Q1, but surprisingly, revenue share of TSMC's flagship N3 (3nm-class) process technology declined steeply quarter-over-quarter.
"Our business in the first quarter was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand," said Wendell Huang, senior VP and chief financial officer of TSMC. "Moving into second quarter 2024, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies, partially offset by continued smartphone seasonality."
In the first quarter of 2024, N3 wafer sales accounted for 9% of the foundry's revenue, down from 15% in Q4 2023, and up from 6% in Q3 2023. In terms of dollars, TSMC's 3nm production brought in around $1.698 billion, which is lower than $2.943 billion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, TSMC's other advanced process technologies increased their revenue share: N5 (5 nm-class) accounted for 37% (up from 35%), and N7 (7 nm-class) commanded 19% (up from 17%). Though both remained relatively flat in terms of revenue, at $6.981 billion and $3.585 billion, respectively.
Generally, advanced technology nodes (N7, N5, N3) generated 65% of TSMC's revenue (down 2% from Q4 2023), while the broader category of FinFET-based process technologies contributed 74% to the company's total wafer revenue (down 1% from the previous quarter).
TSMC itself attributes the steep decline of N3's contribution to seasonally lower demand for smartphones in the first quarter as compared to the fourth quarter, which may indeed be the case as demand for iPhones typically slowdowns in Q1. Along those lines, there have also been reports about a drop in demand for the latest iPhones in China.
But even if A17 Pro production volumes are down, Apple remains TSMC's lead customer for N3B, as the fab also produces their M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max processors on the same node. These SoCs are larger in terms of die sizes and resulting costs, so their contribution to TSMC's revenue should be quite substantial.
"Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to account for 46% of our first quarter revenue," said Huang. "Smartphone decreased 16% to account for 38%. IoT increased 5% to account for 6%. Automotive remained flat and accounted for 6%, and DCE increased 33% to account for 2%."
Meanwhile, as demand for AI and HPC processors will continue to increase in the coming years, TSMC expects its HPC platform to keep increasing its share in its revenue going forward.
"We expect several AI processors to be the strongest driver of our HPC platform growth and the largest contributor in terms of our overall incremental revenue growth in the next several years," said C.C. Wei, chief executive of TSMC.
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