In what started last year as a handful of reports about instability with Intel's Raptor Lake desktop chips has, over the last several months, grown into a much larger saga. Facing their biggest client chip instability impediment in decades, Intel has been under increasing pressure to figure out the root cause of the issue and fix it, as claims of damaged chips have stacked up and rumors have swirled amidst the silence from Intel. But, at long last, it looks like Intel's latest saga is about to reach its end, as today the company has announced that they've found the cause of the issue, and will be rolling out a microcode fix next month to resolve it.
Officially, Intel has been working to identify the cause of desktop Raptor Lake’s instability issues since at least February of this year, if not sooner. In the interim they have discovered a couple of correlating factors – telling motherboard vendors to stop using ridiculous power settings for their out-of-the-box configurations, and finding a voltage-related bug in Enhanced Thermal Velocity Boost (eTVB) – but neither factor was the smoking gun that set all of this into motion. All of which had left Intel to continue searching for the root cause in private, and lots of awkward silence to fill the gaps in the public.
But it looks like Intel’s search has finally come to an end – even if Intel isn’t putting the smoking gun on public display quite yet. According to a fresh update posted to the company’s community website, Intel has determined the root cause at last, and has a fix in the works.
Per the company’s announcement, Intel has tracked down the cause of the instability issue to “elevated operating voltages”, that at its heart, stems from a flawed algorithm in Intel’s microcode that requested the wrong voltage. Consequently, Intel will be able to resolve the issue through a new microcode update, which pending validation, is expected to be released in the middle of August.
And while there’s nothing good for Intel about Raptor Lake’s instability issues or the need to fix them, that the problem can be ascribed to (or at least fixed by) microcode is about the best possible outcome the company could hope for. Across the full spectrum of potential causes, microcode is the easiest to fix at scale – microcode updates are already distributed through OS updates, and all chips of a given stepping (millions in all) run the same microcode. Even a motherboard BIOS-related issue would be much harder to fix given the vast number of different boards out there, never mind a true hardware flaw that would require Intel to replace even more chips than they already have.
Still, we’d also be remiss if we didn’t note that microcode is regularly used to paper over issues further down in the processor, as we’ve most famously seen with the Meltdown/Spectre fixes several years ago. So while Intel is publicly attributing the issue to microcode bugs, there are several more layers to the onion that is modern CPUs that could be playing a part. In that respect, a microcode fix grants the least amoun... CPUs
When Micron announced plans to build two new fabs in the U.S. in 2022, the company vaguely said both would come online by the decade's end. Then, in 2023, it began to optimize its spending, which pushed production at these fabrication facilities. This week, the company outlined more precise timeframes for when its fabs in Idaho and New York will start operations: this will happen from calendar 2026 to calendar 2029.
"These fab construction investments are necessary to support supply growth for the latter half of this decade," a statement by Micron in its Q3 FY2024 financial results report reads. "This Idaho fab will not contribute to meaningful bit supply until fiscal 2027 and the New York construction capex is not expected to contribute to bit supply growth until fiscal 2028 or later. The timing of future [wafer fab equipment] spend in these fabs will be managed to align supply growth with expected demand growth."
Micron's fiscal year 2027 starts in September 2026, so the new fab near Boise, Idaho, is set to start operations between September 2026 and September 2027. The company's fiscal 2028 starts in September 2027, so the fab will likely begin operations in calendar 2028 or later, probably depending on the demand for DRAM memory in the coming years. That said, Micron's U.S. memory fabs will begin operations between late 2026 and 2029, which aligns with the company's original plans.
Construction of the fab in Idaho is well underway. In contrast, construction of the New York facility has yet to begin as the company is working on regulatory and permitting processes in the state.
Micron's capital expenditure (CaPex) plan for FY2024 is approximately $8.0 billion, with a decrease in year-over-year spending on wafer fabrication equipment (WFE). In Q4 FY2024, the company will spend around $3 billion on fab construction, new wafer fab tools, and various expansions/upgrades.
Looking ahead to FY2025, the company plans a substantial increase in capex, targeting a mid-30s percentage of revenue to support various technological and facility advancements. In particular, it expects its quarterly CapEx to average above the $3 billion level seen in the fourth quarter of FY2024, which means that it plans to spend about $12 billion in its fiscal 2025, which begins in late September.
Half or more of the total CapEx increase in FY2025 (i.e., over $2 billion) will be allocated to constructing new fabs in Idaho and New York. Meanwhile, the FY2025 CapEx will significantly rise to fund high-bandwidth memory (HBM) assembly and testing and the construction of fabrication and back-end facilities. This increase also includes investments in technology transitions to meet growing demand.
"Fab construction in Idaho is underway, and we are working diligently to complete the regulatory and permitting processes in New York," said Sanjay Mehrotra, chief executive officer of Micron, at the company's conference call with investors and financial analysts (via SeekingAlpha). "This additional leading-edge greenfield capacity, along with continued technology transition investments in our Asia facilities, is required to meet long-term demand in the second half of this decade and beyond. These investments support our objective to maintain our current bit share over time and to grow our memory bit supply in line with long-term industry bit demand."
MemoryKioxia's booth at FMS 2024 was a busy one with multiple technology demonstrations keeping visitors occupied. A walk-through of the BiCS 8 manufacturing process was the first to grab my attention. Kioxia and Western Digital announced the sampling of BiCS 8 in March 2023. We had touched briefly upon its CMOS Bonded Array (CBA) scheme in our coverage of Kioxial's 2Tb QLC NAND device and coverage of Western Digital's 128 TB QLC enterprise SSD proof-of-concept demonstration. At Kioxia's booth, we got more insights.
Traditionally, fabrication of flash chips involved placement of the associate logic circuitry (CMOS process) around the periphery of the flash array. The process then moved on to putting the CMOS under the cell array, but the wafer development process was serialized with the CMOS logic getting fabricated first followed by the cell array on top. However, this has some challenges because the cell array requires a high-temperature processing step to ensure higher reliability that can be detrimental to the health of the CMOS logic. Thanks to recent advancements in wafer bonding techniques, the new CBA process allows the CMOS wafer and cell array wafer to be processed independently in parallel and then pieced together, as shown in the models above.
The BiCS 8 3D NAND incorporates 218 layers, compared to 112 layers in BiCS 5 and 162 layers in BiCS 6. The company decided to skip over BiCS 7 (or, rather, it was probably a short-lived generation meant as an internal test vehicle). The generation retains the four-plane charge trap structure of BiCS 6. In its TLC avatar, it is available as a 1 Tbit device. The QLC version is available in two capacities - 1 Tbit and 2 Tbit.
Kioxia also noted that while the number of layers (218) doesn't compare favorably with the latest layer counts from the competition, its lateral scaling / cell shrinkage has enabled it to be competitive in terms of bit density as well as operating speeds (3200 MT/s). For reference, the latest shipping NAND from Micron - the G9 - has 276 layers with a bit density in TLC mode of 21 Gbit/mm2, and operates at up to 3600 MT/s. However, its 232L NAND operates only up to 2400 MT/s and has a bit density of 14.6 Gbit/mm2.
It must be noted that the CBA hybrid bonding process has advantages over the current processes used by other vendors - including Micron's CMOS under array (CuA) and SK hynix's 4D PUC (periphery-under-chip) developed in the late 2010s. It is expected that other NAND vendors will also move eventually to some variant of the hybrid bonding scheme used by Kioxia.
StorageG.Skill on Tuesday introduced its ultra-low-latency DDR5-6400 memory modules that feature a CAS latency of 30 clocks, which appears to be the industry's most aggressive timings yet for DDR5-6400 sticks. The modules will be available for both AMD and Intel CPU-based systems.
With every new generation of DDR memory comes an increase in data transfer rates and an extension of relative latencies. While for the vast majority of applications, the increased bandwidth offsets the performance impact of higher timings, there are applications that favor low latencies. However, shrinking latencies is sometimes harder than increasing data transfer rates, which is why low-latency modules are rare.
Nonetheless, G.Skill has apparently managed to cherry-pick enough DDR5 memory chips and build appropriate printed circuit boards to produce DDR5-6400 modules with CL30 timings, which are substantially lower than the CL46 timings recommended by JEDEC for this speed bin. This means that while JEDEC-standard modules have an absolute latency of 14.375 ns, G.Skill's modules can boast a latency of just 9.375 ns – an approximately 35% decrease.
G.Skill's DDR5-6400 CL30 39-39-102 modules have a capacity of 16 GB and will be available in 32 GB dual-channel kits, though the company does not disclose voltages, which are likely considerably higher than those standardized by JEDEC.
The company plans to make its DDR5-6400 modules available both for AMD systems with EXPO profiles (Trident Z5 Neo RGB and Trident Z5 Royal Neo) and for Intel-powered PCs with XMP 3.0 profiles (Trident Z5 RGB and Trident Z5 Royal). For AMD AM5 systems that have a practical limitation of 6000 MT/s – 6400 MT/s for DDR5 memory (as this is roughly as fast as AMD's Infinity Fabric can operate at with a 1:1 ratio), the new modules will be particularly beneficial for AMD's Ryzen 7000 and Ryzen 9000-series processors.
G.Skill notes that since its modules are non-standard, they will not work with all systems but will operate on high-end motherboards with properly cooled CPUs.
The new ultra-low-latency memory kits will be available worldwide from G.Skill's partners starting in late August 2024. The company did not disclose the pricing of these modules, but since we are talking about premium products that boast unique specifications, they are likely to be priced accordingly.
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